Posts Tagged: Nobel


13
Oct 09

On theory

The Crooked Timber folks have a passage from Nobel Laureate Lin Ostrom on the meaning of social scientific theory and modeling:

An important challenge facing policy scientists is to develop theories of human organization based on realistic assessment of human capabilities and limitations in dealing with a variety of situations that initially share some or all aspects of a tragedy of the commons. … Theoretical inquiry involves a search for regularities … As a theorist, and at times a modeler, I see these efforts [as being] at the core of a policy science. One can, however, get trapped in one’s own intellectual web. When years have been spent in the development of a theory with considerable power and elegance, analysts obviously will want to apply this tool to as many situations as possible. The power of a theory is exactly proportionate to the diversity of situations it can explain. All theories, however, have limits. Models of a theory are limited still further because many parameters must be fixed in a model, rather than allowed to vary. Confusing a model – such as that of a perfectly competitive market – with the theory of which it is one representation can limit applicability still further. (pp.24-25)

Much is being made of Ostrom’s being both a woman and a political scientist. Being one of the latter myself, I’m certainly excited. Perhaps I’m from the other side of things (the luddite, skeptical, thick description, don’t-expect-too-much-from-a-model camp), I’m doubly impressed by her comments above.  With methodological opponents like this, who needs allies?

This will, I promise, be my last Nobel post.


10
Oct 09

On being followed by the past

People's-Palace

Freshly minted Nobel-for-Literature laureate Herta Müller is an ethnic German of Romanian extraction. Like lots of prominent folks who rose to prominence under the Eastern European communist regimes, she was the subject of security service observation and, like many from minority communities, she was doubly an object of suspicion. She detailed her attempts to access her former Securitate files in Die Zeit last July, now translated over at Sign and Sight. It’s worth quoting at some length:

Suddenly I found my file, too, under the name of Cristina. Three volumes, 914 pages. It was allegedly opened on 8 March, 1983 – although it contains documents from earlier years. The reason given for opening the file: “Tendentious distortions of realities in the country, particularly in the village environment” in my book “Nadirs”. Textual analysis by spies corroborate this. And the fact that I belong to a “circle of German-language poets”, which is “renowned for its hostile works”.

The file is a botched job by the SRI on behalf of the old Securitate. For ten years they had all the time in the world to “work” on it. You could not call this cooking the books, the file has simply been emptied of all substance.

….

Then came the interrogations. The reproaches: that I wasn’t looking for a job, that I was living from prostitution, black market dealings, as a “parasitic element”. Names were mentioned that I had never heard in my life… Hours and hours of fictitious reproaches. But not only that. They needed no summons, they simply plucked me off the street.

….

My file at least answered one painful question. A year after my departure from Romania, Jenny came to visit in Berlin… But when I saw her passport in our Berlin kitchen, and the additional visas for France and Greece, I confronted her directly: “You don’t get a passport like that for nothing, what did you do to get it?” Her answer: “The secret service has sent me, and I was desperate to see you again.” Jenny had cancer – she is long dead now… After just a couple of days I rummaged through her suitcase and found the telephone number of the Romanian consulate and a copy of our door key. After that I lived with the suspicion that in all probability she had been spying on me from the outset, her friendship just part of the job. After her return, I see from the file, she delivered a detailed description of the flat and of our habits, as “SURSA (source) SANDA”.

….

In 1989, after Ceausescu’s fall, I thought that the smear campaigns against me would finally be over. But they continued. In 1991 I even received threatening phone calls in Rome while on a bursary at the Villa Massimo. And the Securitate’s letter campaign has apparently taken on a life of its own. When in 2004 I was awarded the literature prize of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, not only did the Foundation receive piles of letters containing the usual slander, this time the action took on grotesque proportions as even the chairmanship of the Bundestag, the then leader of the federal state of Baden-Württenberg, Erwin Teufel, the chairman of the jury, Birgit Lermen, and Joachim Gauck, who was to give the award speech, received letters denouncing me as an agent, a member of Romania’s communist party, and a traitor.

In December, 1989, it took a week to overthrow Ceausescu, ‘try’ him, put a bullet in his head, and bury him in a mis-marked grave at the edge of Bucharest. A scant few days before his death, he’d addressed massed crowds from the balcony of the People’s Palace (above). These things can seem awfully fast when they happen. Perhaps it’s no surprise that rooting out the societal consequences takes longer–very long indeed.


10
Oct 09

Peace prize

Well you can’t throw a rock without hitting an opinion on this the last two days. Here, here, and here are Andrew Sullivan’s helpful surveys of opinion on the subject. His own reaction–not too shabby–is here.

From what I can tell, opinion is divided as follows: the right has rolled out a predictable critique and the left feels that the Nobel committee invited it. Plenty, to be clear, think this was deserved. It’s hard to find many who think this was a great idea. It’ll be fascinating to know someday how yesterday morning played out in the Whitehouse.

A few past laureates are more positive:

Mohamed Elbaradei, the director-general of the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency, who received the prize in 2005, said in a statement that he was “absolutely delighted.”

“I cannot think of anyone today more deserving of this honor,” he said. “In less than a year in office, he has transformed the way we look at ourselves and the world we live in and rekindled hope for a world at peace with itself.”

Along a similar vein, another laureate, President Shimon Peres of Israel, sent a letter to President Obama on Friday morning, saying: “Very few leaders if at all were able to change the mood of the entire world in such a short while with such a profound impact. You provided the entire humanity with fresh hope, with intellectual determination, and a feeling that there is a lord in heaven and believers on earth.”

Of course, this isn’t the first time the Nobel committee has displayed a slightly tin ear. Here’s a Newsweek review of past controversial awardees. Really, does this make less sense than giving the prize to Henry Kissinger?


9
Oct 09

“Nobel Prize jumps the shark”

So read a million blog post titles right now. Or so I assume. Anyone as amazed as I am by the Nobel committee (and I take that to be anyone), might refer to the following proposed headline Fox News on Metafilter:

SOCIALIST NORWAY GIVES PRIZE TO SOCIALIST KENYAN

And, you know, Fox would have a grain of truth for once. It’s that and, you know, the whole nuclear disarmament thing. Preventing the destruction of humanity in a firy infurno probably counts too.


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