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The Crooked Timber folks have a passage from Nobel Laureate Lin Ostrom on the meaning of social scientific theory and modeling:

An important challenge facing policy scientists is to develop theories of human organization based on realistic assessment of human capabilities and limitations in dealing with a variety of situations that initially share some or all aspects of a tragedy of the commons. … Theoretical inquiry involves a search for regularities … As a theorist, and at times a modeler, I see these efforts [as being] at the core of a policy science. One can, however, get trapped in one’s own intellectual web. When years have been spent in the development of a theory with considerable power and elegance, analysts obviously will want to apply this tool to as many situations as possible. The power of a theory is exactly proportionate to the diversity of situations it can explain. All theories, however, have limits. Models of a theory are limited still further because many parameters must be fixed in a model, rather than allowed to vary. Confusing a model – such as that of a perfectly competitive market – with the theory of which it is one representation can limit applicability still further. (pp.24-25)

Much is being made of Ostrom’s being both a woman and a political scientist. Being one of the latter myself, I’m certainly excited. Perhaps I’m from the other side of things (the luddite, skeptical, thick description, don’t-expect-too-much-from-a-model camp), I’m doubly impressed by her comments above.  With methodological opponents like this, who needs allies?

This will, I promise, be my last Nobel post.